What's Wrong with Vlad?
Finding the biggest sources of Vlad's power outage in 2026.
The increasing sinker usage against the Jays' core bats that I wrote about previously is an interesting trend but doesn't really provide a satisfactory explanation for Vlad's decline. Vlad's persistent and steep drop-off has arguably been the most puzzling and most important aspect of the Jays' season, and, while it's true that increasing sinker usage is part of the story here, it's certainly not the full story.
What Has Changed in His Performance?
Breaking down the specifics of what has changed with Vlad this season reveals a few pretty clear main areas of struggle. A main narrative with Vlad is that his chase is his main problem. Looking at how he's treating pitches outside the zone this year relative to previous years can serve as a high-level assessment of this thinking.
Vlad — Pitches Outside Zone (2022–2026)
| Year | % of Pitches | % of Outs | Swing % | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 54.6% | 30.5% | 31% | .342 |
| 2025 | 49.4% | 21.7% | 21% | .389 |
| 2024 | 50.1% | 30.5% | 27% | .350 |
| 2023 | 52.1% | 32.0% | 28.8% | .300 |
| 2022 | 53.2% | 34.0% | 20.8% | .284 |
Vlad is getting more balls this year compared to previous years and swinging at them more. The difference is significant from last year when his discipline was very good, but it is relatively consistent with earlier years when his overall performance was still good. His performance on balls outside the zone is also consistent with previous years, meaning that this may explain outs, but it is not explaining the drop in power.
Looking at his performance on in-zone pitches is much more revealing of where his drop in power lies.
Vlad — Pitches in Zone (2022–2025)
| Pitch | Pitch % | SLG | wOBA | ISO | Hard Hit % | Barrel/PA % | HRs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam | 32.6% | .551 | .374 | .219 | 58.5% | 13.4% | 24 |
| Sinker | 22.1% | .527 | .371 | .191 | 60.7% | 10.0% | 16 |
| Slider | 14.5% | .601 | .399 | .259 | 56.3% | 12.8% | 19 |
| Cutter | 8.9% | .646 | .435 | .267 | 54.9% | 11.3% | 10 |
| Changeup | 8.3% | .458 | .316 | .175 | 61.6% | 10.2% | 7 |
| Sweeper | 6.7% | .586 | .367 | .300 | 53.8% | 17.9% | 11 |
| Curveball | 3.3% | .697 | .424 | .379 | 56.3% | 16.2% | 7 |
Vlad — Pitches in Zone (2026)
| Pitch | Pitch % | SLG | wOBA | ISO | Hard Hit % | Barrel/PA % | HRs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam | 25.8% | .358 | .274 | .075 | 52.3% | 6.3% | 0 |
| Sinker | 28.9% | .557 | .406 | .165 | 53.3% | 7.4% | 3 |
| Slider | 11.8% | .222 | .178 | .028 | 33.3% | 2.7% | 0 |
| Cutter | 10.0% | .240 | .153 | .120 | 40.9% | 12.0% | 1 |
| Changeup | 6.8% | .462 | .312 | .192 | 50.0% | 3.8% | 1 |
| Sweeper | 7.1% | .440 | .330 | .120 | 50.0% | 22.2% | 0 |
| Curveball | 3.8% | .700 | .519 | .200 | 70.0% | 20.0% | 0 |
There are two notable overarching takeaways from this comparison. First, the pitch mix against him in the zone has changed, as he is getting more sinkers and fewer 4-seams and sliders in the zone this year. Second, his performance decline is concentrated among three main pitches: the 4-seam, the slider, and the cutter. He has crushed these pitches in the zone in the past and cannot do damage on them this year.
What Is Driving the Change?
Explaining this change is not easy, mainly because the typical physical and mechanical explanations that you would look to do not explain it for him. He has had a few seemingly minor back and hamstring issues this year, but they have not kept him out of playing time for any extended period. Notably, his swing speed, often an indicator of injury affecting the swing, is consistent with previous years. Mechanically, his setup and swing is, in the aggregate, consistent with previous years as well.
As indicated by the charts above, there has been a change in how pitchers are approaching him. In addition to getting more sinkers overall, the sinker has become by far the most common pitch he sees on first pitches, at the expense of the 4-seam.
First Pitch by Pitch Type (2022–2026)
| Year | % 4-Seam | % Sinker | % Slider | % Cutter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.9% | 33.1% | 16.3% | 11.0% |
| 2022–2025 | 29% | 23.4% | 15.0% | 10.4% |
There has also been a massive jump in pitches up that he is facing this year. The rate of pitches he is seeing in the top third of the attack zones has almost doubled this year.
% of Pitches in Top Third Attack Zones (Zones 11–13, 21–23, 31–33)
| Year | % |
|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.1% |
| 2025 | 11.5% |
| 2024 | 12.9% |
| 2023 | 12.1% |
| 2022 | 10.6% |
These changes in how pitchers are approaching Vlad (more sinkers overall and as the first pitch specifically, fewer fastballs and sliders, more pitches up) do not explain anything in themselves but are interesting routes of exploration given that his physical and mechanical characteristics haven't seemed to change. Fully exploring his decline requires examining the pitch-specific factors which have led to his decline against the pitches where he used to do the most damage and is now failing.
4-Seam Fastballs
Vlad's inability to punish 4-seams in the zone this year is likely the biggest component of his overall decline. Over his career, it hasn't been the pitch he hits best on a per-pitch basis, but it is the biggest single pitch component of his power output given that it is the pitch he has historically seen the most in the zone. Compared to his stats from 2022–2025, his SLG on 4-seams in the zone has dropped from .551 to .358, his ISO has dropped from .219 to .075, and his barrel rate has roughly halved from 13.4% to 6.3%. He has NO home runs on 4-seams in the zone this year, with his only home run on a 4-seam coming on a chase outside the zone.
It seems that this decrease in power has some relation to the in-zone locations where he is seeing more sinkers this year.
In-Zone 4-Seams and Sinkers Faced by Gameday Zone (2022–2025)
| Zone | % of Zone 4-Seam | % of Zone Sinkers | 4-Seam SLG | 4-Seam wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (Up and In) | 54.9% | 21.8% | .433 | .302 |
| 2 (Middle Up) | 54.2% | 13.6% | .677 | .404 |
| 3 (Up and Away) | 53.4% | 11.7% | .730 | .494 |
| 4 (Middle In) | 32.0% | 33.6% | .416 | .310 |
| 5 (Middle Middle) | 34.1% | 21.2% | .671 | .452 |
| 6 (Middle Away) | 35.9% | 16.1% | .600 | .389 |
| 7 (Down and In) | 17.7% | 37.1% | .632 | .431 |
| 8 (Middle Down) | 20.3% | 24.4% | .542 | .372 |
| 9 (Down and Away) | 18.7% | 17.3% | .333 | .277 |
In-Zone 4-Seams and Sinkers Faced by Gameday Zone (2026)
| Zone | % of Zone 4-Seam | % of Zone Sinkers | 4-Seam SLG | 4-Seam wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (Up and In) | 24.6% | 34.8% | .333 | .296 |
| 2 (Middle Up) | 40.0% | 22.2% | .500 | .393 |
| 3 (Up and Away) | 53.4% | 17.2% | .667 | .506 |
| 4 (Middle In) | 20.5% | 41.0% | .300 | .267 |
| 5 (Middle Middle) | 32.4% | 27.6% | .083 | .000 |
| 6 (Middle Away) | 20.0% | 18.9% | .800 | .608 |
| 7 (Down and In) | 10.0% | 54.0% | .000 | .000 |
| 8 (Middle Down) | 19.7% | 32.4% | .000 | .000 |
| 9 (Down and Away) | 11% | 22.6% | .000 | .000 |
It should be noted that the data set at the bottom of the zone is messy, as he has never received many 4-seams in the bottom third of the zone and he is receiving very few this year. For example, he hasn't swung on any 4-seam fastball in Zone 7 (down and in) this year.
The increased sinker usage and decreased 4-seam usage is strong everywhere except middle away and up and away. These are the only zones where Vlad is hitting the 4-seam as well as in previous years. His middle up, middle middle, and down and in zones — previously some of his best 4-seam hitting areas — have all experienced at least 6 percentage point rises in sinker usage, and have all declined in terms of production. Middle middle is perhaps the most shocking of these. Vlad has an 80% hard hit rate on these 4-seams but no barrels and no extra-base hits.
Looking at these problematic zones in particular shows that there have been mechanical changes specific to the 4-seam in these zones. In middle middle, his launch angle is 6 degrees, compared to 24 degrees last year and 14 degrees in 2024 when he crushed middle middle 4-seams. His attack angle has decreased by several degrees, and his swing path tilt has increased. The decreased launch angle and attack angle, and increased swing path tilt, are also present to a lesser extent on middle up 4-seams. This at bat against Kyle Bradish on May 31 shows what the problem might be. Here Vlad gets a first-pitch sinker at 94.1 mph. The second pitch is a 4-seam at 94.8 mph middle in. Vlad hits it at 107.5 mph but hits it into the ground at a -26 degree launch angle.
In terms of 4-seams at the bottom of the zone, which he has not gotten a hit off this year, he is taking these as called strikes at a 63.3% rate this year. Across the bottom third as a whole, he hasn't even swung at 19 of 30 4-seams. This is up 6 percentage points from last year, and almost 20 percentage points from 2024.
The connection between poor performance and increased sinker usage is also borne out in his results based on sequencing. Both this year and last year, he was not good at hitting the 4-seam immediately after a sinker, but the difference is this year he is seeing more sinkers.
4-Seams Immediately Following a Sinker (2025–2026)
| Year | % of 4-Seams (other than first pitch) | SLG | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.9% | .167 | .150 |
| 2025 | 9.1% | .250 | .355 |
He hasn't been able to handle the sinker-to-4-seam sequence either year. His performance on other sequences is notably much stronger. In 2026, he is slugging .364 with a .335 wOBA on 4-seams that follow a 4-seam, and is slugging 1.167 with a .675 wOBA on 4-seams following a slider.
This leaves us with a strong indication that there is something about sinkers that negatively affects Vlad's performance on 4-seamers. Now that he is facing more sinkers across the zone, his performance on 4-seams in these now sinker-heavy zones is decreasing. I don't know what the fix to this is, but it seems to be a strong explanation for his drop in 4-seam performance in the zone.
Sliders and Cutters
The problems underlying sliders and cutters are different than the 4-seams. There appear to be two parts to Vlad's struggles on these pitches, only one of which has any explanation in the data.
First, he is chasing sliders outside the zone much more frequently and also facing these pitches outside the zone much more frequently.
| Year | % of Pitches outside Zone | Swing % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 62.5% | 36.4% |
| 2025 | 50.7% | 21.5% |
| 2024 | 54.6% | 32.8% |
This is a relatively simple explanation and could be the result of him pressing while he is struggling. Unsurprisingly, he has never hit sliders outside the zone well, and that is unchanged this year, but he is seeing and swinging on more of them. This accounts for some portion of the drop-off against sliders.
More puzzling is the second part, which is that he can't hit sliders or cutters in the zone. Unlike with the 4-seam, there is not a clear shift in how sliders are being used against him that might explain this. The mechanical metrics look almost identical to previous years, when he crushed the slider. I am at a loss as to what could be affecting his slider performance other than just a down season and pressing.
There are a few noticeable trends for cutters, including that his launch angle on cutters in the zone has gone from 10 degrees to 21 degrees this year, and that pitchers are throwing him more cutters up in the zone and fewer down in the zone. This is a likely explanation for a portion of the decrease, as he wasn't great against cutters in the top third of the zone last year and has always done his damage on cutters low in the zone. He is continuing to do damage on these cutters in the lower third of the zone this year but is just seeing them less frequently — they make up only 10.4% of cutters in the zone this year vs. 16.6% in the past two years.
Conclusion
It looks like the league has adjusted to Vlad this year with a few main techniques that are exposing some of his weaknesses:
- Pitching him more up (20.1% of all pitches this year vs. 11.5% last year).
- Mixing more sinkers and cutters with 4-seams at the top of the zone and in traditional 4-seam damage areas for him. Mixing up fastball variations in his favourite 4-seam zones appears to have thrown him off the 4-seam.
- Sequencing the 4-seam behind sinkers more frequently. He was poor last year at hitting the 4-seam after a sinker and continues to be this year.
- Throwing more sliders outside the zone. He likes to swing at sliders and hasn't been able to lay off sliders outside the zone this year.
- Moving cutters away from the bottom of the zone. He has always crushed cutters at the bottom of the zone and continues to this year, but is just seeing fewer of them.
Why can't he hit sliders in the zone? Why hasn't he adjusted as you would expect? Is this all just coincidence? I don't have any answers to these questions, and hopefully he will just start hitting again so no one has to think about them.