My last analysis on Vlad focused on the changing pitch mix against him this year but did look into the swing mechanics which are undoubtedly a part of his struggles. This piece examines the mechanics of his swing from a data-driven perspective, but with some help from the pros.
Likely the most discussed potential explanations for mechanical deficiencies in Vlad's swing have come from two notable former all-stars, Joey Votto and Albert Pujols. In Pujols' view, Vlad's issue is a bat wrap, meaning the bat tip drifting too far behind his head in his pre-swing load, which is leading to a longer bat path and a slower time to getting the barrel in the zone. Votto believes Vlad is not back-hipping properly in his swing, meaning his forward weight transfer occurs before his barrel is in the zone. This could lead to his bat dragging behind his body in his swing. These are not mutually exclusive explanations, and both, particularly if occurring together, could have the effect of delaying his swing so he is making contact with the ball at an earlier part of his swing than in previous years. This effect of their explanations appears to be borne out in the data.
Vlad has always had an anomalously flat swing. His attack angle of 1.2° and 1.1° were the lowest of all qualified hitters in the league in 2025 and 2026 respectively. This has clearly worked for him in the past, but it is not a swing design that you would necessarily expect to be successful, particularly for a player expected to produce power like Vlad. It also seems possible that such a unique swing could become a major hindrance if some aspect of the swing which makes Vlad able to succeed with it breaks down.
| Metric | Vlad | League Avg | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bat Speed | 76.2 mph | 72.4 mph | 92nd |
| Attack Angle | 1.1° | 10.2° | 0th |
| Ideal Attack Angle Rate | .312 | .500 | 1st |
| Swing Path Tilt | 28.4° | 28.7° | 13th |
As discussed in my last piece, Vlad's physical characteristics, predominantly his swing speed, have not changed from previous years. Although the explanation may not be physical decline of this sort, it seems plausible that broken mechanics are playing a big role.
Stance
Let's start with examining one of the most basic aspects of swing mechanics: the stance. The tables below show some key aspects of Vlad's stance on a month-by-month basis from the past two years.
2025
| Month | Depth in Box | Distance from Plate | Foot Width | Stance Angle |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar/Apr | 27.3" | 29.5" | 25.6" | 10° open |
| May | 26.8" | 30.2" | 26.9" | 7° open |
| Jun | 26.3" | 29.3" | 28.7" | 8° open |
| Jul | 28.4" | 28.3" | 28.2" | 14° open |
| Aug | 28.9" | 27.8" | 29.1" | 16° open |
| Sep/Oct | 29.5" | 28.5" | 29.5" | 17° open |
2026
| Month | Depth in Box | Distance from Plate | Foot Width | Stance Angle |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar/Apr | 28.7" | 28.4" | 30.2" | 14° open |
| May | 28.9" | 29.4" | 28.0" | 8° open |
| Jun | 28.4" | 28.8" | 28.9" | 7° open |
| Jul | 28.6" | 29.2" | 29.5" | 9° open |
| Aug | 28.7" | 27.5" | 28.1" | 10° open |
As can be seen, Vlad tweaked his stance over the course of 2025. He started standing closer to the plate, with his feet closer apart, and with a relatively closed stance. Over the course of the season, he gradually opened his stance, stood further back in the box, and increased the distance between his feet. His best month by OPS was July, when this transition really took place.
He started this season with a similar stance to the stance he found success with in 2025. In March and April, when his OPS was almost .900, his stance was very similar to his stance in July 2025. However, in May he reverted to a more closed stance but maintained his depth in the box, a stance design that was slightly different from any of his stances in 2025. This is interesting, but looking at stance alone suffers from similar problems to looking at pitch mix alone — it is not necessarily explanatory. The changes could be Vlad attempting to respond to something else, rather than the causal mechanism themselves.
Swing Metrics
Looking at his contact metrics during the swing helps tie together what has changed to what has gone wrong, and there is a massive red flag here. His swing on fastballs reveals a huge problem.
| Metric | 2025 | Mar/Apr '26 | May '26 | Jun '26 | Jul '26 | Aug '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Attack Angle | -2.7° | -0.7° | -3.1° | -3.5° | -4.0° | -3.0° |
| Y Intercept vs Plate | +0.6" | -0.2" | +0.1" | -0.1" | -0.8" | -2.2" |
| Y Intercept vs Batter | 28.4" | 28.6" | 28.8" | 28.1" | 27.8" | 26.5" |
Y intercept is a metric that tracks where the bat head meets the ball relative to the plate and the player, with a positive value meaning it's closer to the pitcher. Research shows that most home runs come from a Y Intercept vs Batter around 30"–42". Attack angle measures the vertical angle at which the barrel of a bat meets the ball at contact. As can be seen, over the course of this year his swing on fastballs has gradually declined in attack angle and both Y intercepts, to a point where in July and August, all are significantly below his 2025 metrics. This means that Vlad is meeting fastballs deeper in the zone and with a more negative attack angle, both of which indicate that he is meeting fastballs earlier in his swing, likely before his swing gets to the power zone where he can do damage.
His swing metrics on sliders, which have traditionally been one of the best pitches for him to hit, tell the other side of the story. His attack angle, attack direction, and Y intercept all look like they should be good, as he is meeting sliders out in front with a pull orientation and loft and a positive angle. These metrics are all elevated or the same as his 2025 numbers on sliders. However, when he pulls a slider this year, it is usually a ground ball, and his exit velocity on pull-side sliders has dropped from around 94 mph last year to around 89 mph this year. As documented in my previous piece, he is also chasing sliders outside the zone much more often than last year. This all indicates he is trying to protect against being late on the fastball by starting his swing against sliders earlier, meaning he is chasing bad ones and meeting them too late in the swing when he does make contact. This has become most clear in August, when he is meeting the slider very far out in front, but has an average exit velo on sliders of 82 mph.
Connecting to Pitch Mix
These swing metric trends also tie back to the pitch mix used against him. He is seeing sinkers much more frequently this year, much more frequently on first pitch, and most more frequently high in and above the zone. But perhaps more telling is that the combined sinker and 4-seam usage against him has climbed dramatically over the year.
| Month | SI% | SI 1st Pitch% | SI High% | SI+FF Combined% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Full | 20.1% | 22.8% | 21% | 42.6% |
| Mar/Apr '26 | 20.8% | 31.5% | 34% | 44.1% |
| May '26 | 25.2% | 33.0% | 35% | 46.7% |
| Jun '26 | 27.0% | 33.3% | 30% | 49.2% |
| Jul '26 | 28.7% | 35.4% | 27% | 55.7% |
| Aug '26 | 24.1% | 26.8% | 35% | 55.1% |
Opposing pitchers appear to have recognized his difficulties catching up to the fastball and are exploiting it through a mix of 4-seams and sinkers. The increased sinker usage may simply be a way to throw him more fastballs to exploit these mechanical changes without him adapting to a 4-seam.
So we've identified a few things that have changed, but it is also important to rule out what hasn't changed. Crucially, his bat speed and contact skills have not really dropped off, as he is swinging as hard as last year and his miss distance and whiff rate are generally the same.
This leaves us with a more cohesive explanation of what is wrong with Vlad, and it is not overly complex. He is late on fastballs, potentially due to the mechanical issues discussed by Votto and Pujols, and maybe also related to him closing his stance without shifting where he is in the box. This has been heavily exploited by pitchers who are throwing him more fastballs and mixing in more sinkers. The knock-on effect of this is that he is trying to swing earlier to avoid being late, and when the pitch is actually a slider, he is committed too early and either chasing outside the zone or is out in front of it and makes poor contact. The examples are clear on tape.
The Swing in Action
In terms of fastballs, you can see him putting weak contact, often to the oppo side, on hittable pitches:
- Middle middle sinker from Yerry De Los Santos — August 22 — popout to shallow right field
- Middle middle 4-seam fastball from Gerrit Cole — August 22 — flyout to right field
- Middle middle 4-seam fastball from Payton Tolle — August 13 — popout to second base
- Middle middle 4-seam fastball from Sonny Gray — August 10 — popout to second base
- Middle middle sinker from Logan Webb — July 8 — flyout to right field
In terms of breaking balls, you can see him putting what looks like a good swing on pitches in the zone but not getting the power and quality of contact:
- Middle down sweeper from Seth Lugo — August 25 — flyout to left field
- Middle up slider from Tyron Guerrero — August 11 — flyout to right field
- Middle middle sweeper from Sonny Gray — August 10 — flyout to centre field
- Middle middle slider from Chris Sale — June 4 — flyout to left field
- Middle middle slider from Dennis Santana — May 22 — groundout to third
In terms of a fix, Votto suggested simplifying his swing, and Pujols suggested having his bat closer to his lower body during his setup. It is also surprising that he has not shifted his position in the box at all this year, despite changing his position often over last year.