The Misguided 2026 Reinvention of José Soriano and What the Jays Should Change
Going back to basics and a look at his underused gyro slider
Anybody who watched José Soriano pitch against the Jays at the beginning of the year, or who watched pretty much any Soriano game in March and April, knows that he can shut down an entire offence when he is on. However, he has regressed slightly since the beginning of the year and his expected stats indicate some further regression. Looking further into his changes over this year, and his changes since his first full season as a starter in 2024, reveals that he may not be the type of power pitcher that you would think at first glance.
This article by Michael Baumann from April does a good job of breaking down some interesting aspects of Soriano's profile. He had the second highest average velocity 4-seam fastball in the league amongst qualified pitchers in 2025 and one of the hardest curveballs in the league as well. Despite this velocity, his strikeout numbers have never been in the same category as other pitchers with similar elite velocity. Instead, he has typically been a ground-ball pitcher relying on his sinker to get outs. His sinker was actually the single pitch that got the most grounders in the entire league in 2025. When Baumann wrote this in April, when Soriano was one of the best pitchers in the league, he noted that Soriano was throwing more 4-seam fastballs and generating more whiff on his secondary pitches. It was working well for him, but as the season went on it stopped working for him, being a primary cause of the regression for him this year.
So it looks like the Angels tried to turn Soriano from a sinker-heavy groundball pitcher (the highest groundball rate amongst qualified starters in 2025) into more of a strikeout pitcher by increasing his 4-seam usage. This is obvious from his pitch mix, as his 4-seam usage jumped from 15% in 2024 and 9% in 2025 to 24% this year, and his sinker usage decreased from 49% in 2025 to 27% this year. The desired goal has somewhat been achieved — his K% is up by almost 4 percentage points this year. But it has also limited him in some ways, and seems set to further limit him moving forward.
There are three main downsides of his 4-seam usage. First, lefties can hit his 4-seam. His 4-seam rate against lefties has jumped from around 15% over the past two years to 25% this year. This is also the first year he has had negative platoon splits, and they are bad.
José Soriano — Platoon Splits (2026)
| Batter Hand | IP | WHIP | SLG | OPS | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L | 65.2 | 1.42 | .365 | .701 | .315 |
| R | 56.1 | 1.08 | .267 | .548 | .254 |
It should be noted his platoon splits are inflated by two particularly bad games against lefties, but his expected stats still show that, for the first time in his career, lefties are doing better against him than righties. His 4-seam actually played well against lefties, but this was when he was using it around 12% of the time. It got hit hard by lefties in 2024, when he used it a bit more frequently than in 2025, and it is getting hit hard this year now that he has increased usage again.
The second downside is more general and underscores that Soriano may not be suited as the high strikeout rate pitcher that it seemed like the Angels were trying to make him into. Since 2024, Soriano's 4-seam and sinker speed have been on a gradual but persistent decline.
Year-Over-Year Velocity
| Year | Average 4-Seam Velo | Average Sinker Velo |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 97.2 | 96.4 |
| 2025 | 97.9 | 97.2 |
| 2024 | 98.9 | 97.7 |
There has been a significant drop-off within the course of this year, as his average 4-seam and sinker have both fallen by about 2 mph over the course of the year. In July his 4-seam was sitting at around 96.5 mph and his sinker at around 95.5 mph. So his fastball is not the same fastball it was at the beginning of the year, and certainly not the fastball from his previous years. He has dropped from the second fastest 4-seam in the league to one more similar to George Kirby, whose 4-seam is the pitch that now most closely resembles Soriano's 4-seam from July in terms of velo and movement.
Third, he seems to either have some difficulty locating his 4-seam effectively or is being forced to throw it in the middle of the zone. Soriano is throwing roughly 60% of his 4-seams in the middle of the zone and only 20% up in the zone. His stats on 4-seams up at the top of the zone are good, but if he leaves it middle it gets hammered. This is consistent with Kirby's almost identical 4-seam, which similarly doesn't do well in the middle but is good at the top of the zone. The difference is that Kirby throws his 4-seam almost 60% of the time at the top of the zone. When they are behind in the count, Kirby throws his 4-seam around 29% of the time in the top of the zone, whereas Soriano only throws it up there 8.2% of the time. Interestingly, it appears that it is more than Soriano just missing the top of the zone and hitting the middle — he is locating his 4-seam at the bottom third of the zone 28.5% of the time versus only 9.7% of the time for Kirby.
As a separate change potentially linked to his declining velocity, Soriano's splitter has become less effective over the course of the year. The SLG, wOBA, and xwOBA against the splitter has risen every month, from .154 xwOBA in March/April to .305 in June and .410 in July. He throws a hard splitter (around 92 mph) that has actually not decreased in velo over the year but has decreased in vertical drop. At the same time, his sinker, which has a similar movement profile to the splitter, has decreased in velocity, which could potentially mean that batters are able to approach his split and sinker in the same way.
What to Change?
It seems that the increased 4-seam and strikeout version of Soriano is not his best form, particularly because it does not seem sustainable given the decreased velocity on his fastballs, and his 4-seam is getting hit hard.
One option would be to just revert to his sinker-heavy approach. This worked in 2025. His xFIP and xwOBA were actually lower last year than this year, and he had the 14th best xFIP amongst all qualified starters last year.
That being said, his 2025 profile of almost 50% sinkers does not seem sustainable or optimized for a starter either. Building off his 2025 season likely means reducing the sinker percentage, as he has done, but it should not be replaced by the 4-seam.
What pitch should he use instead of the 4-seam if he reduces sinker usage? The curve and the split are the obvious answers, but there are issues with both. He has shown an ability to throw his curve in the zone with success, but it is his slowest pitch at around 85 mph and his only pitch with glove-side movement. Both of these indicate that it is easy to recognize out of the hand, and hitters may adjust if he relies on it too much. His splitter, particularly to lefties, seems like a good option, but, as discussed above, his decreased sinker velocity and decreased drop on his splitter seem to have negatively affected the splitter's effectiveness. Even more important, he doesn't throw it in the zone. He only throws 29% of his splitters in the zone, and the same 29% to lefties. It is an out pitch for him, not a pitch to get a strike.
This is why the Jays should try to get Soriano to make his slider a bigger portion of his arsenal moving forward. We haven't discussed his slider yet, mainly because it's a pitch he barely uses. This year he uses it 10% against righties and 1% against lefties. These numbers were essentially the same in 2024 and 2025. It should be used more, as it is not a bad pitch and, more importantly, it serves a unique role in his pitch mix.
Soriano throws a 90 mph gyro slider, meaning it essentially goes straight without much glove-side run. It's the only pitch in his arsenal between the curve and his other pitches, both in terms of movement and velocity. It was also his best pitch by Stuff+ in 2025.
Other starters with similar sliders in terms of velocity and movement include Braxton Ashcraft, Lake Bachar, Bubba Chandler, and, notably for Jays fans, Dylan Cease. Sandy Alcantara's cutter is also a very similar pitch. All of these pitchers throw their gyro pitch much more frequently, ranging from 14% for Alcantara to 30% for Cease, with Ashcraft, Chandler, and Bachar all around 20%. Crucially, they all throw it in the zone, with the zone rate being around 50%, and they all throw it to lefties (ranging from 15–23% usage against lefties).
Soriano has not thrown his slider in the zone much, and in previous years it has been hit hard when it's in the zone. This is likely just noise from a small sample size given he rarely uses it and it has never been a part of his pitching plan. This year there has been no hit against his slider in the zone in 33 pitches.
It may not work, but the slider seems like a severely underutilized pitch in his arsenal. It models well, has similar characteristics to other sliders that are used by successful pitchers, and occupies a distinct place in his pitch mix that may allow him to throw it in the zone for strikes when hitters are sitting on the fastball-sinker-split mix and guarding against a curve.
Even without increasing the slider, Soriano should reduce the 4-seams, throw them up in the zone when he does throw them, and replace them with more sinkers, curves, and splitters in the zone. This approach seems to better fit his stuff.